Do any of you live

Anonymous 2

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LiveWhatULove wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:04 pm
Anonymous 2 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm
LiveWhatULove wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:52 pm


Thank you for trying.

But I do not think that report takes in the account that many white-collar employers have not had multiple quarters of decreased earning & revenue. But it is coming.

We have not felt the full impact of lack of tourism, change behavior spending & shopping habits due to our lifestyle changing significantly. For example did you see Nike earnings, as they report earlier than other companies, in store sales are down significantly. Over the next 1-3 years, some of those 85% will have their jobs eliminated. Marketing, customer support, management jobs will definitely be impacted, and it just doesn’t happen overnight, but ii am afraid it will happen.
What is the basis of your assumption that companies will suffer multiple quarters of decreased earnings? Given that 85% of income represents a significantly higher proportion of disposable income for saving and spending than the 15% of blue collar income, spending and investing levels should return to normal fairly quickly once people get past their fear of the virus. That’s the whole point....
Maybe I am wrong! I would love to be. Really! If you are an Econ guru, I am not! I am basing this on reading things like Wall Street journal and economic Apple news articles, watching CNBC fast money and basically all those shows. As well personal experience with the healthcare industry & my DH’s company & watching family & friends.

From my understanding, 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending & people do not need clothes, as many school supplies, items for vacations, haircuts, GPS devices. Not as many vehicles. There is no need to keep up with the Jones, so although some home improvement spending is up, people are not preparing for entertaining. Although there are small segments, personal fitness (which is why I was shocked with the Nike earnings) & camping, and of course some people are just soothing their soul shopping, as a whole spending is down.

I do not see our behavior returning to normal with current transmission numbers.

But as I said I hope you are right! I want to be all worried for no reason at all. That would be a win-win!!
What I wrote is based on the commentary of the chief economist at one of the largest banks in the world. But there is no guarantee that people are going to give up fear of the virus.
Anonymous 2

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Valentina327 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:19 pm
mojogirl wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:11 pm
It has exploded in my area. Mandatory masks starts today. We'll see. People here don't seem to take it all seriously. Numbers are insane.
People actually getting sick and going to the hospital, or positive people being discovered because of this testing obsession?
Today they did over 21k tests in my state and only had around 150 positive cases. That a positive rate of less than 0.1%. The testing simply lets you know how it’s spreading through your community.
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We were doing very well but today, again had a record since March. They are banning on site alcohol consumption and closing bars that don’t serve food. We’ve been under mandatory mask wearing since April but apparently we did something to counteract the good.
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Anonymous 9 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:10 pm
I'm sorry, LIveWhatULove. Stay safe. HUG.
LiveWhatULove wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:32 pm
I cried today. Although Kansas is lower population density, our numbers our trending up quickly. We had very low numbers, we did not open too quickly, we did not have massive protests or huge events...but here we are in the same boat as many states.

I have co-workers which have fallen ill. I am glad to know many that have recovered fine, but still I worry about families watching their loved ones get so sick and some die.

I wonder is there really anyway to prevent it since we really we can't shelter in place for years on end.

And then I think about the destruction to the economy, when we are going to get inevitably all get exposed anyway.

Sorry, to vent, but I'm pretty depressed if I allow my mind to dwell on it.
Thank you!
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MistressMonster wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:31 pm
Oregon was doing great. But when things started opening back up. Our numbers statewide have gone up.
They say its not due to the Protests/Riots downtown but I'm thinking Yeah.....
Tillamook County has 2 new cases bringing our total up to 9.
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Anonymous 2 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:39 pm
LiveWhatULove wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:04 pm
Anonymous 2 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:12 pm


What is the basis of your assumption that companies will suffer multiple quarters of decreased earnings? Given that 85% of income represents a significantly higher proportion of disposable income for saving and spending than the 15% of blue collar income, spending and investing levels should return to normal fairly quickly once people get past their fear of the virus. That’s the whole point....
Maybe I am wrong! I would love to be. Really! If you are an Econ guru, I am not! I am basing this on reading things like Wall Street journal and economic Apple news articles, watching CNBC fast money and basically all those shows. As well personal experience with the healthcare industry & my DH’s company & watching family & friends.

From my understanding, 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending & people do not need clothes, as many school supplies, items for vacations, haircuts, GPS devices. Not as many vehicles. There is no need to keep up with the Jones, so although some home improvement spending is up, people are not preparing for entertaining. Although there are small segments, personal fitness (which is why I was shocked with the Nike earnings) & camping, and of course some people are just soothing their soul shopping, as a whole spending is down.

I do not see our behavior returning to normal with current transmission numbers.

But as I said I hope you are right! I want to be all worried for no reason at all. That would be a win-win!!
What I wrote is based on the commentary of the chief economist at one of the largest banks in the world. But there is no guarantee that people are going to give up fear of the virus.
Well, he should know his stuff! Thank you for sharing, I should stop listening to all the behavior economics :D
Anonymous 2

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LiveWhatULove wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:07 pm
Anonymous 2 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:39 pm
LiveWhatULove wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:04 pm


Maybe I am wrong! I would love to be. Really! If you are an Econ guru, I am not! I am basing this on reading things like Wall Street journal and economic Apple news articles, watching CNBC fast money and basically all those shows. As well personal experience with the healthcare industry & my DH’s company & watching family & friends.

From my understanding, 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending & people do not need clothes, as many school supplies, items for vacations, haircuts, GPS devices. Not as many vehicles. There is no need to keep up with the Jones, so although some home improvement spending is up, people are not preparing for entertaining. Although there are small segments, personal fitness (which is why I was shocked with the Nike earnings) & camping, and of course some people are just soothing their soul shopping, as a whole spending is down.

I do not see our behavior returning to normal with current transmission numbers.

But as I said I hope you are right! I want to be all worried for no reason at all. That would be a win-win!!
What I wrote is based on the commentary of the chief economist at one of the largest banks in the world. But there is no guarantee that people are going to give up fear of the virus.
Well, he should know his stuff! Thank you for sharing, I should stop listening to all the behavior economics :D
I think the banking industry’s largest concern right now is that Biden wins the election AND republicans lose the majority in the senate. That could very much equal economic devastation for the US.

The problem is that the pandemic is so politically charged because this is an election year that it has turned into a partisan issue. While Trump might just be refusing to wear a mask because he’s an asshole, it’s just as likely that he’s doing it primarily to signal that people’s fear of a virus shouldn’t be greater than their fear of economic devastation. Everyone has seemingly forgotten that we elected all these politicians to actually make decisions and lead, including the politicians themselves! Folks that go into politics generally have a much higher risk tolerance than those that become epidemiologists. At the outset, all of these politicians needed to listen to all the facts, talk to all the experts that they had available to them, and then start making some decisions rather than completely deferring to public health experts to save their political asses. The whole thing is utter madness!

I’m not suggesting that there shouldn’t have been closures, shelter in place orders, etc, but rather that the people that we elected to make these decisions should have actually made them. Instead, they were all just like “well, we are just going to listen to the public health experts that are paid to be completely risk adverse.”

😂 I guess your rant inspired a rant of my own!
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Anonymous 2 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:59 am
LiveWhatULove wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:07 pm
Anonymous 2 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:39 pm


What I wrote is based on the commentary of the chief economist at one of the largest banks in the world. But there is no guarantee that people are going to give up fear of the virus.
Well, he should know his stuff! Thank you for sharing, I should stop listening to all the behavior economics :D
I think the banking industry’s largest concern right now is that Biden wins the election AND republicans lose the majority in the senate. That could very much equal economic devastation for the US.

The problem is that the pandemic is so politically charged because this is an election year that it has turned into a partisan issue. While Trump might just be refusing to wear a mask because he’s an asshole, it’s just as likely that he’s doing it primarily to signal that people’s fear of a virus shouldn’t be greater than their fear of economic devastation. Everyone has seemingly forgotten that we elected all these politicians to actually make decisions and lead, including the politicians themselves! Folks that go into politics generally have a much higher risk tolerance than those that become epidemiologists. At the outset, all of these politicians needed to listen to all the facts, talk to all the experts that they had available to them, and then start making some decisions rather than completely deferring to public health experts to save their political asses. The whole thing is utter madness!

I’m not suggesting that there shouldn’t have been closures, shelter in place orders, etc, but rather that the people that we elected to make these decisions should have actually made them. Instead, they were all just like “well, we are just going to listen to the public health experts that are paid to be completely risk adverse.”

😂 I guess your rant inspired a rant of my own!
I understand what you are ranting about.

I do agree it is highly political, and I have said from the onset, that I really do not know what the ethical thing to do is.

I just don’t see this ending any other way, than, many middle & older age adults, eventually at some point, getting sick and some will die, whether we shelter in place 1 more year or 2 more years. People are pretty hesitant for vaccine even if we do get that figured out, so transmission to the masses seems pretty inevitable?
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Sassyfrass01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:05 pm
MistressMonster wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:31 pm
Oregon was doing great. But when things started opening back up. Our numbers statewide have gone up.
They say its not due to the Protests/Riots downtown but I'm thinking Yeah.....
Tillamook County has 2 new cases bringing our total up to 9.
Heard them say that too. It might be true? I can't say one way or the other. Lane seems to get quite a few new cases daily. Suspect the bulk across the state are up in PDX. They have over a million people living up there.
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